Trump Declares the Islamabad Memorandum Dead and the Gulf Is Back on the Brink

After Iranian attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz and American strikes on more than 80 targets, Trump declares the agreement with Tehran void. The peace lasted less than three weeks.

Three weeks after the Islamabad Memorandum, Trump declared the understanding with Iran over at the NATO summit in Ankara. Iran had struck three commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz in the middle of the mourning week for the late Ayatollah Khamenei, and the US responded with strikes on more than 80 targets.

US President Donald Trump has declared the memorandum of understanding to end the war with Iran void. The agreement is probably over, Trump said ahead of the NATO summit in Ankara during a joint appearance with Secretary General Mark Rutte, adding that he no longer wants to negotiate with Tehran or have anything to do with Iran. They are sick people, liars and cheats, Trump said. Rutte demonstratively backed the American military strikes of the previous night, calling them absolutely necessary. That leaves the Islamabad Memorandum of June 17, which had reopened the Strait of Hormuz and started a sixty day negotiation window, effectively dead after barely three weeks.

Escalation in the Week of Mourning

The collapse began with the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, whose funeral processions drew millions to Tehran and to the Shiite pilgrimage cities in Iraq early in the week. Trump had promised Tehran a week of calm for the mourning ceremonies, but between Monday and Tuesday Iran struck three commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The US responded with strikes on more than 80 targets, including air defense positions, coastal radars, anti ship missiles and more than 60 Revolutionary Guard speedboats, and simultaneously revoked the sanctions relief that was part of the framework deal. Iran then attacked targets in Kuwait and Bahrain and declared there would be no talks until Trump stops his threats.

The Core Conflict Was Never Resolved

Behind the collapse lies the question the memorandum deliberately left open, who controls the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran continues to claim a leading role in managing the strait, including fees for passing ships, while Washington insists on free international navigation. Oil markets that had already priced the peace in as a glut now have to think again, and the succession question in Tehran makes every forecast even more uncertain. The caveat under which the easing of recent weeks stood has come to pass.